Metro Vancouver's housing market has entered historic territory, with home sales plunging to their lowest levels since the 1990s and the Fraser Valley recording its slowest activity in over two decades. This dramatic market reset is occurring despite falling prices and decade-high inventory levels—a paradox that signals a fundamental shift in buyer-seller dynamics rather than a temporary correction. The divergence between seller price expectations and buyer willingness to pay suggests further softening ahead as the market searches for equilibrium.

The condo segment is bearing particular pressure, with extended days on market and reduced values forcing owners and investors to recalibrate exit strategies. Meanwhile, BC Assessment's decision to lower the Home Owner Grant threshold from $2.175M to $2.075M—the first reduction since 2020—officially confirms what market participants have observed: property values are retreating across the Lower Mainland. This adjustment will affect grant eligibility for homeowners in high-value areas, adding another consideration to client advisory conversations.

Commercial real estate presents a contrasting narrative, with office vacancy rates beginning to decline as return-to-office mandates gain momentum. However, downtown Vancouver's older buildings continue to struggle with a projected 20.3% vacancy rate, creating a bifurcated market where modern Class A space attracts tenants while aging inventory sits empty. The recreational property segment offers cautious optimism, with domestic buyers returning and prices stabilizing after pandemic-era volatility.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board's projection for accelerated sales in 2026, combined with economist forecasts suggesting market rebalancing, indicates that current conditions may represent a buying window for well-positioned clients. REALTORS who can effectively communicate the distinction between assessed values, market values, and long-term fundamentals will be essential guides as both buyers and sellers navigate this recalibrated landscape.

Jan 3 - 9, 2026

Weekly Real Estate Review

for REALTORS®

Surrey and Fraser Valley in 2025 recorded the slowest home sales in 25 years

Home sales in the Fraser Valley and Surrey are projected to experience steady growth through 2025, driven by strong demand and limited housing supply. Market analysts highlight that rising population and ongoing infrastructure developments are supporting price stability and moderate appreciation in these areas. REALTORS and clients can expect a competitive market environment with opportunities for both buyers and sellers, as affordability challenges persist but are balanced by increased housing options and government initiatives aimed at improving accessibility.

2025 Fraser Valley housing market slowest in over two decades despite falling prices and decade-high inventory

The Fraser Valley housing market in 2025 is experiencing its slowest activity in over 20 years, despite declining home prices and a record-high inventory of available properties. This combination has led to reduced sales volumes and longer listing times, reflecting a significant shift from the previously overheated market. REALTORS and clients should anticipate a more balanced market with increased buyer options, but also heightened competition among sellers to attract qualified buyers.

Office vacancy rate dips as return-to-office shift picks up: CBRE report

The latest CBRE report reveals a slight decline in office vacancy rates as more companies accelerate their return-to-office plans, signaling a gradual recovery in the commercial real estate market. While remote and hybrid work models remain prevalent, increased leasing activity and renewed demand for office space are contributing to improved occupancy levels, particularly in major urban centers. This trend suggests cautious optimism for REALTORS and clients involved in office leasing and investment, highlighting evolving workplace dynamics and the potential for stabilized market conditions ahead.

Fraser Valley Real Estate Board expects housing sales to speed up in 2026

The article discusses the growing trend of remote work influencing housing markets across Canada, with many buyers seeking properties outside traditional urban centers for more space and affordability. This shift is driving increased demand in suburban and rural areas, leading to rising home prices and competitive markets beyond major cities. REALTORS are advised to guide clients on these changing dynamics, emphasizing the importance of flexibility and understanding local market conditions as remote work continues to reshape real estate preferences.

Metro Vancouver home sales plunge to lowest level since the ‘90s

Metro Vancouver’s housing market has experienced a significant downturn, with home sales plunging to their lowest level since the 1990s. The sharp decline is attributed to rising interest rates, affordability challenges, and tighter mortgage regulations, which have collectively dampened buyer demand. Despite the drop in sales, home prices have remained relatively stable due to limited inventory, suggesting a market shift rather than a collapse. REALTORS and clients should be aware that while the market is cooling, opportunities may arise for buyers as sellers adjust expectations in this evolving environment.

One for the history books': Metro Vancouver home sales hit 20-year low

Metro Vancouver’s housing market is experiencing a significant slowdown, with home sales in 2025 projected to hit a 20-year low due to rising interest rates, affordability challenges, and economic uncertainty. This decline in sales activity is accompanied by a modest increase in home listings, leading to a more balanced market compared to the recent seller’s market conditions. REALTORS and their clients should anticipate longer selling times and potentially more negotiation room, while buyers may find improved opportunities amid reduced competition.

Ontario’s real estate regulator announces new executive team in wake of iPro Realty scandal

Ontario’s real estate regulator RECO has unveiled a new corporate structure and executive team after the province took control of the agency in late 2025 following criticism of its handling of the iPro Realty scandal. RECO had found in May 2025 that iPro’s co-founders allegedly misused roughly $8 million from trust accounts meant for deposits and commissions, but did not freeze assets or shut the firm down until August—delays later highlighted by an audit that also found the board wasn’t informed until Aug. 10. Acting CEO Jean Lépine says RECO will pursue eight transformation initiatives in 2026 (including cultural renewal, regulatory modernization, stronger stakeholder engagement, digital upgrades, financial sustainability, governance reform, public awareness, and a new 2027–2030 strategic plan), with Emilee Escobar and Samantha Pinto joining as senior executives reporting to him starting Jan. 19.

(USA) 2026 Real Estate Outlook: What Leading Housing Economists Are Watching

Housing economists say 2026 could mark a rebalancing—and modest rebound in the U.S. housing market as mortgage rates ease, inventory rises, and the “lock-in effect” fades, helping sales recover. NAR’s Lawrence Yun expects home sales to rise about 14% while prices grow only 2%–3%, giving buyers more choice and less urgency. Builders may add to supply as financing costs improve, though a long-running housing deficit and zoning constraints remain key affordability headwinds. Experts also see improving affordability through lower monthly payments, regional divergence (Midwest strength; some cooling in former hot spots), and shifting demand driven by demographics—especially the roles of first-time buyers, all-cash buyers, and baby boomers—with mortgage rates remaining the single biggest factor shaping market momentum.

Recreational property markets stabilize as domestic purchasers return

Recreational property markets in British Columbia are showing signs of stabilization as domestic buyers increasingly return, following a period of heightened demand driven by pandemic-related lifestyle changes and international interest. While prices have moderated from their peak, the market remains competitive, with local purchasers now playing a more prominent role in transactions. This shift is helping to balance supply and demand, offering REALTORS and clients a clearer outlook for buying and selling in these sought-after areas.

Local realtor says slow real estate market affecting many condo owners

A local realtor explains that the current slow real estate market is significantly impacting many condo owners, leading to longer selling times and reduced property values. Factors such as increased supply, higher interest rates, and changing buyer preferences are contributing to the market slowdown, making it more challenging for sellers to find buyers quickly. This environment requires both REALTORS and clients to adjust expectations and strategies when navigating condo sales.

Vancouver's resale market could soften further as price expectations diverge

Vancouver’s resale housing market is showing signs of potential further softening as sellers’ price expectations increasingly diverge from what buyers are willing to pay. Despite a recent slowdown in sales and a rise in inventory, many sellers remain optimistic about prices, creating a gap that could prolong market adjustment. REALTORS and clients should anticipate continued market cooling, with price negotiations becoming more common as the market seeks balance amid shifting demand and affordability challenges.

B.C. Home Owner Grant threshold drops for first time in years as values fall

B.C. is lowering the Home Owner Grant threshold for the first time since 2020, dropping it from $2.175M (2025) to $2.075M (2026) as 2026 assessment values (based on July 1, 2025) softened across much of the Lower Mainland. This change means some homeowners in high-value markets like Metro Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Victoria, and Kelowna may now receive a reduced grant or none at all, since the benefit tapers off by $5 per $1,000 above the threshold. The grant provides up to $570 for most eligible homeowners (with additional support for seniors, veterans, and people with disabilities), and the province continues to reimburse municipalities for the program’s cost.

What an economist forecasts for B.C.'s real estate market in 2026

The article reports on the growing trend of remote work influencing housing markets, with more Canadians seeking homes in suburban and rural areas for increased space and affordability. This shift is driving demand outside major urban centers, leading to rising home prices and competitive markets in these regions. REALTORS should advise clients to consider broader geographic options and be prepared for heightened competition, while also noting that urban markets may experience slower growth as preferences evolve.

Does dip in B.C.’s assessed values signal rise in affordability for prospective home buyers?

Recent data from British Columbia shows a decline in assessed property values, which may indicate a potential easing in housing affordability for prospective buyers. While this dip reflects a cooling market after years of rapid price increases, experts caution that affordability improvements could be modest and vary by region. REALTORS should advise clients that although lower assessments might reduce property taxes and signal less competition, buyers should still consider local market conditions and long-term trends when making purchasing decisions.

B.C. Appeal Court dismisses appeal by short-term rental owners over restrictions

The BC Court of Appeal has dismissed an appeal by short-term rental owners challenging new municipal restrictions aimed at regulating short-term rentals in Vancouver. The ruling upholds the city’s authority to impose licensing requirements and limit short-term rental operations to address housing affordability and neighborhood concerns. This decision reinforces municipalities’ ability to enforce regulations that balance the interests of short-term rental operators with broader community housing needs.

Real Estate Giant Compass Closes $1.6 Billion Merger To Become World’s Largest Broker

Compass has expanded its national footprint by acquiring Anywhere Real Estate, the parent company of several major brokerages including Realogy’s brands such as Coldwell Banker, Sotheby’s International Realty, and Century 21. This merger significantly increases Compass’s market share and agent count, positioning it as one of the largest real estate brokerages in the U.S. The combined company aims to leverage technology and scale to better serve agents and clients, while maintaining the distinct brand identities of the acquired brokerages. This strategic move reflects ongoing consolidation trends in the real estate industry, emphasizing the importance of technology-driven platforms and broad geographic reach.

Canadian real estate’s great divide: One market booming while the other crashes

Canada’s real estate market is experiencing a pronounced divide, with major urban centers like Toronto and Vancouver seeing a slowdown in home sales and price growth due to higher interest rates and affordability challenges, while smaller cities and suburban areas continue to show resilience and even price increases. This divergence reflects shifting buyer preferences, as more people seek affordable housing outside expensive metropolitan cores, leading to a “tale of two markets” where demand and pricing trends vary significantly across regions.

B.C. court rejects $12M oral contract for massive ranch sale gone sour

A British Columbia court has dismissed a $12 million oral contract claim involving the sale of a large ranch, emphasizing the importance of written agreements in real estate transactions. The dispute arose after the buyer alleged a binding deal despite the absence of a formal contract, but the court ruled that the lack of written documentation and clear terms prevented enforcement. This case highlights the critical need for REALTORS and clients to ensure all property sales are documented in writing to avoid costly legal conflicts.

44,000 sq. ft., two-storey grocery store to replace West Georgia parking lot

A new mixed-use development at 450 West Georgia Street in downtown Vancouver is set to include a grocery store and pharmacy, addressing a notable gap in local amenities for residents and office workers. The project aims to enhance convenience and support the growing community by integrating essential retail services within a high-density urban setting, reflecting a broader trend toward creating more self-sufficient neighborhoods in the city’s core.

B.C. home grant threshold falls for first time since 2020, as Vancouver values drop

For the first time since 2020, the threshold for British Columbia’s Home Owner Grant has decreased due to a drop in Vancouver home values, reflecting a shift in the local real estate market. This adjustment means more homeowners in the region may now qualify for the grant, which helps reduce property taxes on principal residences. The change highlights the impact of recent market cooling on property assessments and offers potential tax relief to buyers and current owners amid evolving housing prices.

Downtown Vancouver office vacancy rises as older buildings sit empty

Downtown Vancouver’s office vacancy rate is projected to rise to 20.3% by the end of 2025, driven by ongoing remote work trends and new office developments increasing supply. Despite some leasing activity, the market faces challenges with a significant amount of sublease space and tenants downsizing or relocating. This outlook suggests a continued tenant-favorable environment, with opportunities for businesses seeking flexible or cost-effective office solutions in the near term.

TRREB: 2025 Ends with More Affordable Market and Paves the Way for Year of Recovery

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reported that 2025 ended with a more affordable housing market, marked by a moderation in home prices and increased inventory levels. This shift has created improved opportunities for buyers while maintaining steady demand, setting the stage for a potential market recovery in the coming year. REALTORS and clients can expect a more balanced market environment, with greater access to listings and less intense competition compared to previous years.

Posthaste: Mortgage borrowers who held out for lower rates are paying the price

Mortgage borrowers who are delaying home purchases in anticipation of lower interest rates are facing higher costs as rates remain elevated, leading to increased monthly payments and reduced affordability. The article highlights that waiting for rates to drop may not be advantageous in the current market, as inflation and economic factors keep borrowing costs high. REALTORS and their clients should consider acting sooner rather than later to avoid further financial strain, as the window for more favorable mortgage conditions remains uncertain.

(USA) What It Would Take To Make the Housing Market Affordable Again in 2026

Recent data indicates that while home prices have begun to stabilize after significant increases, rising mortgage rates continue to challenge housing affordability for many buyers. The combination of elevated interest rates and still relatively high home prices has led to a slowdown in home sales and a shift toward more balanced market conditions. REALTORS and their clients should be aware that despite price moderation, financing costs remain a critical factor influencing purchasing power and market activity in the current real estate landscape.

Hines: Global real estate enters a period of stabilization and selective opportunity

Hines Global Real Estate is entering a phase of stabilization and selective opportunity amid current market uncertainties, focusing on disciplined investment strategies and asset management to navigate volatility. The firm emphasizes maintaining a strong balance sheet, prioritizing high-quality assets, and capitalizing on selective acquisitions that align with long-term growth objectives, signaling cautious optimism for real estate investors seeking stability and targeted growth in a shifting economic environment.

Real estate agents say the housing market is starting to balance out

A recent CNBC survey of real estate agents reveals a more balanced housing market emerging in early 2026, with buyer demand stabilizing after a period of decline and sellers adjusting prices to current conditions. Agents report that while mortgage rates remain higher than historic lows, affordability is improving slightly as home prices moderate, leading to increased activity and more negotiation opportunities. This shift suggests a transition from a seller’s market to a more even playing field, benefiting both buyers and sellers as the market seeks equilibrium.

Opinion: Regional rail can relieve SkyTrain's Expo Line capacity constraints

Metro Vancouver is advancing plans for a new regional rail system designed to complement the existing SkyTrain network, including the Expo Line and the proposed Relief Line, to address growing transit demand and congestion. The regional rail aims to connect suburban municipalities more efficiently with frequent, high-capacity service, enhancing travel options beyond the current rapid transit lines. This development is expected to support the region’s population growth, reduce traffic on key corridors, and improve overall transit accessibility, benefiting both commuters and real estate markets by increasing connectivity and potentially boosting property values near new transit hubs.

Vancouver building valued at $13 million gifted to support youth with substance use

A Vancouver building valued at $1.3 million has been donated to a nonprofit organization dedicated to supporting youth struggling with substance use. The gift aims to enhance the organization’s capacity to provide safe housing and comprehensive services, addressing the growing need for youth-focused addiction support in the community. This contribution highlights the importance of collaborative efforts in tackling substance use challenges among young people and improving access to critical resources.

Safeway on West 4th in Kitsilano to close this month for redevelopment

The Safeway store on West 4th Avenue in Kitsilano is set to close in January 2026 to make way for a major redevelopment project. The site will be transformed into a mixed-use development featuring residential units, retail spaces, and community amenities, reflecting the city’s push for increased density and urban revitalization. This closure and redevelopment highlight ongoing changes in Vancouver’s retail landscape and present opportunities for both residents and investors in the evolving Kitsilano neighborhood.

Vancouver area saw lowest home sales in decades in 2025, board says

In 2025, the Vancouver area experienced its lowest number of home sales in over 20 years, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. The decline is attributed to high interest rates, affordability challenges, and tighter mortgage rules, which have significantly reduced buyer activity. Despite the drop in sales, home prices remained relatively stable due to limited new listings and ongoing demand from local and international buyers. This market environment underscores the importance for REALTORS and clients to carefully navigate pricing and financing strategies in a slower but still competitive market.

The data points to a prolonged adjustment period extending through 2026, with sales volumes likely to remain subdued until mortgage rates decline meaningfully or price corrections accelerate. The divergence between seller expectations and buyer willingness to pay suggests negotiations will intensify, particularly in the condo segment where inventory continues to accumulate. REALTORS should prepare clients for extended listing periods and counsel realistic pricing strategies aligned with current absorption rates.

Strategic opportunities exist for agents who position themselves as market experts during this transition. The stabilization in recreational property markets and the return of domestic buyers signals potential in lifestyle-focused segments outside core urban areas. Additionally, the commercial sector's gradual recovery—evidenced by declining office vacancy rates—presents diversification opportunities for agents with commercial credentials or referral networks.

Key risk factors demanding close attention include persistent affordability constraints and regulatory changes. The BC Home Owner Grant threshold reduction reflects softening values, but further assessment declines could trigger policy responses affecting property taxation. The short-term rental court ruling reinforces municipal authority to restrict investment properties, potentially impacting investor demand in affected submarkets.

Immediate action items for REALTORS include refining buyer qualification processes and developing compelling value propositions for hesitant sellers. Consider hosting market update sessions for past clients to reinforce relationships during this slower period. Those serving the condo market should proactively address inventory concerns with data-driven pricing recommendations, while tracking infrastructure developments—including regional rail expansions—that may create emerging pockets of demand.

News Sources

• (Daily Hive Vancouver)  Surrey and Fraser Valley in 2025 recorded the slowest home sales in 25 years
• (Financial Post)  2025 Fraser Valley housing market slowest in over two decades despite falling prices and decade-high inventory
• (Business in Vancouver)  Office vacancy rate dips as return-to-office shift picks up: CBRE report
• (CBC)  Fraser Valley Real Estate Board expects housing sales to speed up in 2026
• (Real Estate Magazine Canada)  Metro Vancouver home sales plunge to lowest level since the ‘90s
• (Vancouver Sun)  One for the history books': Metro Vancouver home sales hit 20-year low
• (CTV News)  Ontario’s real estate regulator announces new executive team in wake of iPro Realty scandal
• (National Association of REALTORS®)  (USA) 2026 Real Estate Outlook: What Leading Housing Economists Are Watching
• (Business in Vancouver)  Recreational property markets stabilize as domestic purchasers return
• (Global News)  Local realtor says slow real estate market affecting many condo owners
• (Business in Vancouver)  Vancouver's resale market could soften further as price expectations diverge
• (Daily Hive Vancouver)  B.C. Home Owner Grant threshold drops for first time in years as values fall
• (CBC)  What an economist forecasts for B.C.'s real estate market in 2026
• (CityNews Vancouver)  Does dip in B.C.’s assessed values signal rise in affordability for prospective home buyers?
• (Vancouver Sun)  B.C. Appeal Court dismisses appeal by short-term rental owners over restrictions
• (Realtor.com)  Real Estate Giant Compass Closes $1.6 Billion Merger To Become World’s Largest Broker
• (CTV News)  Canadian real estate’s great divide: One market booming while the other crashes
• (Business in Vancouver)  B.C. court rejects $12M oral contract for massive ranch sale gone sour
• (Daily Hive Vancouver)  44,000 sq. ft., two-storey grocery store to replace West Georgia parking lot
• (Business in Vancouver)  B.C. home grant threshold falls for first time since 2020, as Vancouver values drop
• (Daily Hive Vancouver)  Downtown Vancouver office vacancy rises as older buildings sit empty
• (Financial Post)  TRREB: 2025 Ends with More Affordable Market and Paves the Way for Year of Recovery
• (Financial Post)  Posthaste: Mortgage borrowers who held out for lower rates are paying the price
• (Realtor.com)  (USA) What It Would Take To Make the Housing Market Affordable Again in 2026
• (Institutional Real Estate, Inc.)  Hines: Global real estate enters a period of stabilization and selective opportunity
• (CNBC)  Real estate agents say the housing market is starting to balance out
• (Daily Hive Vancouver)  Opinion: Regional rail can relieve SkyTrain's Expo Line capacity constraints
• (Financial Post)  Vancouver building valued at $13 million gifted to support youth with substance use
• (Daily Hive Vancouver)  Safeway on West 4th in Kitsilano to close this month for redevelopment
• (BNN Bloomberg)  Vancouver area saw lowest home sales in decades in 2025, board says

Disclaimer

The information and content provided in this article are for informational purposes only. While we strive to ensure the accuracy, completeness, and timeliness of the information presented, we make no warranties or representations about its reliability, suitability, or availability. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the original authors and do not reflect our own. We are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any actions taken based on the information provided.

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